Random musings as things evolve..
My path on economic matter tries to adhere to a balance between investing, saving, and speculating. Within the current long cycle economic policy has pushed, whether intentionally or not, away from interest rates that provide incentives for saving and instead towards speculation.
Within that structure we watch five sectors: stocks, bonds, commodities, gold, and the dollar. Since the August 7, 2020 economic apex, bonds and gold turned down first. Now it appears the next leg is forming as commodities are turning down and stocks will follow.
At the same time interest rates appear to be setting up a final dramatic leg up. From there we should see money move into bonds and gold as the stock collapse takes center stage.
A Consequence, the dollar has and will continue to strengthen from here.
And finally, it seems to me that great economic recoveries involve the political scene being at least somewhat cooperative on goals, like after WWII.
I see little sign of cooperation currently. All this talk of reflation has a lot to prove.