This is the Test..
The test of the equation I laid out last night is being written. The EV/TECH positions are in place, this is where I put on the speculative long positions, SPX at 3685.
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My FOMC Reaction
The market seems to be in sync with Powell’s attempt to try to correct the error. There are signs inflation and commodities either have or are peaking. Additionally, at this part of the cycle it appears that interest rates have…Continue Reading →
A Little Perspective, Part II
Received a chart this morning from my good friend Ron Griess of the ChartStore. It tickled my brain to move to think about some outside the box solutions to the dilemma Powell is facing and prompted me to tweet the…Continue Reading →
A little Perspective
A little perspective here, a 60 % rise on the S&P, commodities, and 2 year rates, since January 25, 2018 may be a level to watch. You will have to click on chart to see convergence. Tomorrow we will see…Continue Reading →
Media Always has it right..
We hear this morning that the S&P is now in a Bear market. How ridiculous is that pronouncement. The only way it would have significance is if journalists would have have been smart enough to have pointed out on January…Continue Reading →
Liquidity vs. Oil
Today’s CPI number was even worse than the number crunchers expected. So how does one react? First, I don’t do anything quickly, have to look at all the numbers / relationships. So here at 10:50 AM CDT is my take…Continue Reading →
Oil Top…
The indicator that I use to see the underlying dynamics of the oil related economy, the semi-conductor ETF SMH versus the Oil ETF OIL is showing signs of flipping at 10:30 AM CDT today.
Oil is Hanging On
A little update here, I am holding on to my 20 percent oil position, but I do have to admit that the premise is being tested. I recognize that the crowd that built the stock bubble in 2021 is behing…Continue Reading →
Consumer Transition
The thing we have been talking about over the past six weeks is falling into place. The consumer is going to get more practical as economic forces come into play. They are going to buy less junk and invest in…Continue Reading →
No One Knows..
No one know what’s next.. 3.5 % interest rates are not the end of the world, historically it is as close to normal that one can find. Multiple supply shocks do exist, but two things can help, build it at…Continue Reading →