Thinking through the Stuff…
As I said the other day, the big traders and investors have yet to sink their teeth into what changed in June 2022. To me that change was that the shock of no more cheap interest rates had made itself…Continue Reading →
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Biden Mortgage Message…
Tweet back to Mark Zandi, It does appear that Biden is well in the lead. I do think in his message he needs to point out to younger people that the low interest rates of the past 12 years, they…Continue Reading →
Generational Inputs…
The following is a more indepth version of what I posted earlier this week. Over the years I have mentioned the book Neil Howe and William Strauss wrote back in 1997 “The Fourth Turning”. Neil Howe wrote a sequel which…Continue Reading →
Nothing has changed…
We are in a Real Bull Market. Powell doesn’t want to fuel a Boom and Bust like the bears are calling for. We are going to go slow and steady with the knowledge the Fed Funds rate is too high…Continue Reading →
Climate Change Model…
The New Economy is lifting its head today. Our model with its core holdings in Green Stocks, EV, Solar, Infrastructure, Biotech, and Battery is following the Green Seasonal. The seasonal of selling green during cold weather and buying green as…Continue Reading →
The Economy is moving to a New Place…
Over the past year the creation of AI and all the chips needed for it have been center stage. Now we move into the implementation stage, where growth will be a result of how individuals and companies improve their efficiency…Continue Reading →
The Dicey Part of the Year…
As we outlined in our annual forecast a few weeks ago, the first quarter of the year, maybe even the first half, will be difficult to negotiate. Growth will be stronger than most market participants expect. Market interest rates, (the…Continue Reading →
The FED funds rate is out of Sync…
The Fed Funds rate, which I call the Message rate, ie. the FED message of rate direction via the differential between it and the average market interest rate (2Y+5Y+10Y+30Y)/4. Here is a chart of that differential since 1989. It is…Continue Reading →
Rates are Pointing to a Good Growth Economy…
Here we see our favorite chart of average interest rates, the average of the (2Y+5Y+10Y+30Y). What we see is a confirmation that rates are not going down due to recession forces, they are just going to hang around here, the…Continue Reading →
Paying Down the Deficit…
I see the Saturday morning talkers being obsessed with the US Deficit, Mauldin, etc. In the moment, yes that is a concern. But where has a lot of our money gone since 1973, oil. Here is what Bing says about…Continue Reading →