Taking a Deep Breath..with update
First, an Update on our S&P Hedge Program..
After the past two days market action the current open short positions are on Alert Status. Maybe a little history on this Program. This program is based on a range of economic fundamentals. It worked well for years prior to its last raw signal, a short signal on August 27, 2020. Operation of the signal has a provision to add or abort a signal based on Daily Relative Strength levels, i.e. adding to position on days when RSI is over 66.0 and aborting a signal when RSI is below 33.0. Since August 27, 2020 the two lowest RSI numbers were 37.04 on September 23, 2020 and 33.44 on September 21, 2021. Friday, the RSI dropped to 26.9, Yesterday it bounced a bit to 28.6, and today it is down to 24.3. So, we have three days of 33.0 or less, an exit short position Alert Level. As we reported yesterday, speculative accounts exited their short positons during the session. We will keep you updated on what we do with the HEDGE shorts. I will post a chart for the Hedge program later today if I get a chance.
Update at 11:30 AM
Drilling down into the half day (3 hour chart numbers) and attendant RSI figures we closed out all the S&P Hedge Short Positions at 4337. We can always reinstitute hedge positions if fail safe indicators are triggered. The program will now be looking for RSI numbers in the 66.0 + level to reinstate positions as the macro indicators remain bearish.
A little Review at the moment….
2008, was the year I started this website, after 38 years in the trading business. That turned out to be the best year of my life in terms of trading, we called the down move and the bottom, got long on the S&P 666 day, Mar 9, 2009. Things went well into 2010 and then Bernanke’s Funny money QE2 period, which started in late 2011, turned all this into a game where fundamentals are in the background. The blog archive has all this available if you are interested and looking for something to do on a slow day.
Reviewing Fundamental Research…
The extremes injected into the economic picture