The Macro Cherry
Please take a look back at our March 17 post for the breakdown of macro levels on the S&P. You will note that the 3040 level on the S&P is the macro extension sell area, the high in overnight trading was 3038 last night. Two months ago, to me, the probability of the bounce actually going to that level on the S&P was very low, possible, but more like a 5 percent probability, (about the same probability as reaching an extreme downside at 333 this coming fall). But we are there, you know what to do.
What about COVID 19 ?
At this moment This is my lay person view of COVID 19.
(So little is known or presented with the federal government sitting on the sidelines. Little applicable information that we can trust appears to be forthcoming. ) But here are my speculations.
- The virus – it does not go away
- There is no way to kill it short of a vaccine.
- Herd immunity is unproven
- It appears around 2 to 20 percent of the population have it at any one time, ( a number of recent surveys show an 8 to 9 percent level) and reinfection is on going.
- One can assume the percentage of reinfection for any area is a function of interaction-this is why distancing and isolation works
- The majority of Deaths seem to be related to prior health conditions
- However a significant percentage of deaths, 15 to 25 % would appear to be related to be otherwise healthy people. Is it a high virus load induced by social / living / working environment?