Patience is probably the most important ingredient at the moment. In the “Numbers” , over the past six months the technicals first turned down on the tech stocks, next on gold and commodities, and up on the dollar at the…Continue Reading →
In looking at our Risk On / Risk Off indicator since the March 2009 market low, we see four points where it would appear that the Fed panicked and made big moves. The last one was on April 18, 2013…Continue Reading →
How do the stock market longs know when to get out? We know that if you are looking for total confirmation that a sell off is real, it will already be over, and the market will be 20 percent or…Continue Reading →
Market pundits like to talk about the market crawling up a wall of worry. The current market is a case study in crowd behavior and the fear that investors have that they will look dumb if they don’t ride on…Continue Reading →
I think we will turn down our exuberant language after last Friday’s employment report as after looking at a lot of indicators this looks a lot like the stock market tops in 2000 and 2007. Nothing ever exactly repeats. So…Continue Reading →
Today’s employment report surprise has the potential to make things a lot different, think very different in a macro sense. 1) Interest rates could start moving sharply higher and bond prices decline, possibly ending the whole interest rate decline since…Continue Reading →
This is a late post today, 1:30 PM CDT. We didn’t feel there was a big need to say what was going to happen at the Fed meeting for a number of reasons: 1) Daffy Duck is still in charge of…Continue Reading →