Think May to Oct, Year 2000 or 2007
I think we will turn down our exuberant language after last Friday’s employment report as after looking at a lot of indicators this looks a lot like the stock market tops in 2000 and 2007. Nothing ever exactly repeats. So interest rates are ticking up some but more than likely most markets are going to punch around over the next 5 months. At that point the bigger macro issues will be more weighty, but then again who knows when the downturn will start, we will just follow the numbers before making any additions to our current positions.
Our positions have not changed since covering our short gold position a few weeks ago. We remain neutral on gold, bonds, and crude oil, long dollar, and short stocks and commodities.