What’s happening? The collapsing yield curve and the gold rally are foreshadowing a downturn in stock prices. Two legs of the Macro equation are breaking out, the long gold and long 20 year bond. With all the optimism build into…Continue Reading →
Is this how deflation ends? Ever since QE 2 funny money started 9 years ago, economic thinkers have wondered how all this foolishness would end. I find it interesting that since the June 5th Macro Pivot Point all four legs…Continue Reading →
Trump probably should change his goal posts to reflect his two legacy’s, Panic and Deflation. Since the all important Macro Cycle pivot day, June 5, 2020, we today see gold up 7.8 %, 20 Yr Bonds up 7.2 %, but…Continue Reading →
In short we are watching the blow-up of a four year election campaign, one based on the premise that the stock market, not the economy or people is important. Everything that has been done, tax cuts for the wealthy, FED…Continue Reading →
The COVID resurgence has put the Old Normal thrust on hold. Let’s let this unfold.
An important point in my life. The day in July 15, 1970 that I started trading as a Member on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It was a big move for an Ag Economics graduate. From managing a…Continue Reading →
Lots of Bubble talk these days. Since 2009 I prefer to call them balloons because they keep needing to have new holes repaired and then the FED tries to reflate them. Results are not good, once punctured they are never…Continue Reading →
That picture changed changed on June 5th and has held. The Macro cycle of long 30 yr bonds and long gold, short S&P and commodities, remains 2.8% positive on an unleveraged basis. Here is the chart of the macro relationship…Continue Reading →
The refusal of markets to move forward into a “New Normal”, making needed adjustments to where we are in the macro Cycle and the new fundamentals, is weighing on the economy. Interest rates reflect that totality and the Macro Cycle…Continue Reading →
To COVID 19 that is.. Time will tell, in the meantime the Macro trade continues to work.