My take on interest rates after this morning’s labor report. The effects of growth, no recession, are going to keep the average rate chart level, (average of 30Y+10Y+5Y+2y) in a 4.18 to 4.82 % range. See chart here, sweet spot…Continue Reading →
But first lets take a look at the Dollar. I don’t talk about the dollar often as I view it as more of a catalyst than a trading vehicle. Back on July 20, 2023 we pointed out that the dollar…Continue Reading →
Things are happening. It looks to me like the primary market buyers today are those being forced to exit bearish macro positioning. We have yet to start the bullish macro phase. See the RUT/NDX relationship chart here which we have…Continue Reading →
Commentators this week are almost unanimous that the market is overbought. Yet, the market may not really be overbought. Essentially, only the SPX, and NDQ are being bought by players, everything else is being sold. Net macro position is zilch. …Continue Reading →
But first everyone has to get used to normal interest rates, the 3.5 to 5.5 % range. Happy Thanksgiving.
Update here on what we call the Gundlach 9/20 Fed response, getting long bonds, stocks, and commodities. This is kind of a macro thing, no decisions needed. It broke out on Tuesday, a little back-off opportunity today for those who…Continue Reading →
Today’s action has elements that suggest that we will see a strong 2024 with the small caps having the most potential, Russell is up around 5 percent today. I don’t think it is because the Russell has been relentlessly sold…Continue Reading →
Are we in a bull market and are the small caps a real steal here? Last week it looks a lot like equity investors were willing to buy everything based on the Fed pivot, but they’re still very skeptical about…Continue Reading →
Rates have rolled over. Relax and be patient. A little chart thing I watch for short term indications, the 7 day ave vs the 50 day average is triggering down today on the composite rate average, the average of the…Continue Reading →
I have always identified myself as a contrarian, or some would say a cynic, and that may be the case. But these days I feel my driving force may be more like Common Sense. Today’s headwinds are large. Eleven years…Continue Reading →