Some Research Highlights…
As I mentioned a few days ago, with the first quarter real numbers on GDP, monetary numbers and prices now out, I am in the process of updating the January 7th 2025 forecast piece on the front page of the…Continue Reading →
Uncategorized
Turning into an Interesting Day, late update…
This is turning into an interesting day, maybe Moody’s unleashed some strong spirits. The composite (02Y+ 05Y +10Y+30Y) average seems to have topped out. See weekly based bar chart here. Also, Bitcoin is having an outside day and is lower…Continue Reading →
Talking out of Both Sides…
We have all heard the term, talking out of both sides of your mouth. That is what we have seen in Washington for years, especially after Bernanke juiced the plot in 2011 with QE. That fact is money is the…Continue Reading →
Euphoric Backdrop…
Fascinating interview on CNBC this morning. CISCO CEO Robbins talking about how people and corporations will keep buying into kind of a climatic euphoric event. This is probably a good way to look at where the market is at this…Continue Reading →
Things are Setting Up…
A lot of information has spewed forth during the first 100 days of Trump. 2025 Forecast Update; With the first quarter real numbers on GDP, monetary numbers and prices now out, I am updating the January 7th 2025 forecast piece…Continue Reading →
Automatic Model Equilibrium…
Forward monetary market driver changes this morning, i.e. interest rates, yield curve, dollar, are bringing a negative vibe to the market equation. The only thing that can overcome that negativity is animal spirits, i.e. the Market Multiplier, initially this measure…Continue Reading →
Speculation is so not Cool now …
I anticipate that with the GDP report this week and the employment report tomorrow, along with weak consumer sentiment, that we are entering a 90 day period of digestion of a weak economy. We have seen the panic selling period,…Continue Reading →
Reapplied Short Hedges…
The Climate Tech Model reapplied all its hedges with SQQQ, Nasdaq at 19926, up 4.7 % from where it lifted hedges yesterday. This remains a volatile affair.
Climate Tech Model Pulled Short Hedges on GDP Rout…
This seems like a risky reaction to a negative GDP report, NDQ was at 19025, but it seems like the data does support a market mentality that sees bad data as a reason to look at the speculative aspects of…Continue Reading →
Stock Market wants to Ignore Recession Risk…
As the U.S. economy heads into a reality check on the first 100 days it is becoming apparent that stocks want to focus on how lower consumer confidence, employment and production will make it more likely that the Fed will…Continue Reading →