My intuitive take on things is that bonds made a trading bottom yesterday, the cycle bottom having been made on 4/24/24. The all-important swing point on TLT that was established on the following dates, 3/28/24, 6/14/24, 7/31/24, 10/9/24, 10/15/24, is…Continue Reading →
Key day today, market is showing that traders of the Tech stocks are fully on board by reinstating their long positions. The RUT / NDQ ratio closed at 0.1100 and while the NDQ showed some weakness on the close at…Continue Reading →
One key factor in the long stretch of the NASDAQ 100 leadership of the bull market in terms of price can be viewed by the ratio of RUT vs NDQ. Lately it has seemed to be in danger of losing…Continue Reading →
Today we see what the verdict on interest rates has been. The economy remains robust and the working average interest rate rose to 3.826 from the 3.61 rate on Sept 17. The stock market is now in a time where…Continue Reading →
A little closer look at valuation chart. Remember yesterday when we posted a long-term chart showing our valuation measure. Here is a closeup, a chart using 30 minute bars, it shows the one day in the extreme overvaluation sector, before…Continue Reading →
The big question before the FED meeting was, what will market interest rates do after the FED does it reduction, whether 25 or 50 points. Here is what we know so far, probably need to check in on this coming…Continue Reading →
Here is what we feel Powell is going to say today. The economy is remaining remarkably resilient, while market interest rates have been expecting economic weakness. Today we cut rates a quarter point in an effort to balance somewhat the…Continue Reading →
We have been talking about how with the steep discount of market rates to the Fed Fund rate, what will happen when the Fed Fund rate drops, whether 0.25 or 0.50. Today may provide a clue, market rates rose and…Continue Reading →
Gold may be flashing a warning sign, I think. The Long wave of Stock Market Speculation which started with 1980’s Trickle Down is coming to an end as the real economy replaces it. At backyard parties’ people are going to…Continue Reading →
The comments from September 6 stand. This is a time of base building for small cap and Climate Change type stocks. On the other hand, one has to keep in mind that the market has a huge overvaluation problem. This…Continue Reading →