The macro deflationary forces continue to show their effect. It seems that the Fed has come to realize that QE 3 was basically ineffectual at fighting deflation. So the next attempt at fighting deflation by the FED seems to be…Continue Reading →
Today’s bounce back up on the markets is just more of the sloughing off of momentum which brings us back into the sell area.
Central bankers around the globe are pulling out their hair trying to figure out why the various QE’s are not igniting economic growth. For example, US industrial production reported yesterday was the weakest in 2 1/2 years, all during the…Continue Reading →
On March 30th we outlined our views on the long economic cycle and how one can build a case that we are in the closing 2 plus year phase of the current cycle. How is the remaining time in this…Continue Reading →
Volatility indicators show that the market is totally in a state of disbelief. So many times over the past 6 years the FED has stepped in and rescued the players. Will they step in now, and with what? We are…Continue Reading →
In my opinion Yellen in her data dependent world is looking for an out. She now knows we are all in a different world. In that case the FED needs to get short term interest rates up to maybe the…Continue Reading →
This morning we reduced our weightings for long T-Bond positions and increased our weightings for long Dollar positions. T-Bonds are 30 years into their Bull Market while the Dollar is only 8 months into its Bull Market. Update at 12:00…Continue Reading →
Here is our view on the Macro Waves, the four descriptive labels available are: ( 1) Strongly UP, 2) Weakly UP, 3) Strongly Down, 4) Weakly Down ) Stocks – Weakly UP T-Bonds – Strongly…Continue Reading →
The last day of the month saw more of the buy on rallys / sell on breaks behavior by the market players coupled with their belief that oil is making a bottom. All in all, a volatile combination in the…Continue Reading →
Yesterday saw some significant downturns in the outlook for stocks. For some time we have been talking about the extremes expected as this deflationary macro takes hold. Those extremes that we have mentioned are $ 22 crude oil, 166 long…Continue Reading →