Blowoff Rally in Play
The rally that we discussed a week ago today is in progress. It may or may not reach the 1150 S&P level, it may be ending today, but regardless of the short-term action the Macro picture is evolving as the…Continue Reading →
Big Picture
Crucial Period Developing
As the S&P 500 makes its push to the 1150 area a pivotal rollover will occur for a number of reasons, some economic, some political. John Mauldin has another good Out-Side The Box letter sent out yesterday called: “Market…Continue Reading →
Stay Short
We missed this little trading rally, by not being aggressive enough in our last comments. That means, stay with the Macro short position. The election direction seems to have turned with Obama’s speech last week. Now we can wait for…Continue Reading →
A Change in Thinking
The summer (June-September period) that has just ended has seen a sideways trading market with extremes of 1010 and 1130 on the S&P 500. The central area for that period has been around the 1080 area. We plan to get…Continue Reading →
Hopefulness Squandered
The hope of a real recovery in the economy that we spoke of in our previous post has been lost in the market activity since. A real economy and market up swing would take a solid base. That solid base…Continue Reading →
Time to Visit the Medicine Man
I will be out west for the next week visiting a friend, a Medicine man. Perhaps a little fresh insight will be good. I see the markets going into a climactic period over the next 45 days from which a…Continue Reading →
Waiting for Value
Last week the S&P 500 sold off to a minor support level at 1039. At the moment the market is kind of waiting for the other shoe to drop, one that will push the market down into the value area. In…Continue Reading →
A Big Value Area Comes Into Focus
As you are well aware we are not in the double dip camp, just looking for a sell-off into a big value area. Depending on what measurement calculation one uses that value area on the S&P is between 860 and…Continue Reading →
Keeping Deflation in the Formula
Ag commodities, especially wheat due to world supply issues have been strong over the past couple of months. Going forward with known supply information the pricing formulas will now need to include the deflation element. The table here shows our…Continue Reading →
The Dollar, Big Story Today……and what about Gold?
Building on our late yesterday comments on the Fed action the Dollar strength today is important for the long term. The US is still the big dog on the block, China moved to soon to come out of the 2007-2009…Continue Reading →