April 30th Breakout…

Has been tested a couple of times, May 19th and June 9th. It held. At some point the parabolic phase of the market will kick in, this is not a good thing, but a fact built around government debt at its core. The government buys defense stuff and the money enters the economy. Then the market takes its cue and speculates with the money. This will go on until the people stop it.

Probably the most important side factor will be to watch the dollar. The following is my outside the box, brain twist view.

It would not surprise me that at some point before the election there will be a US Crisis of Confidence with wholesale dumping of dollars. Initially Walsh and Trump will be dumbfounded, and Trump will try to get Walsh to stop the decline by easing interest rates, but at some point, Walsh will get his bearings probably when the dollar crashes through 95 on the way to 89 and go back to his basic beliefs, start raising rates. I would expect that the early period of the dollar decline will see lots of stuff go higher, stocks, gold, even strangely bonds. The excitement comes when rates start rising.