Trump is in a Trap…

Of his own making essentially, but surely due to his relationship with Netenyahu. The fact is millions of Iranians are willing to die to save their country, I doubt that we have millions of Americans willing to die for a victory. The fact that he sent Kushner to meet with Hakeem Jeffries says to me that he sees a real possibility that the Dem’s will take over both the House and the Senate. Trump’s number one concern at the moment is being impeached, convicted by a two thirds majority, and removed. Iran and the economy are now less important, even though he continues to string along weak efforts at bombing and screwing with the yield curve.

All this makes continued administrative manipulation of the markets shaky at best. In the July 29th to August 3 period the bond vigilantes and gold bugs made their play, they are the dominant force at the moment. On the other hand, Trump is a lot like the cat with nine lives. To me that means the power play between Bessent and the bond vigilantes is front and center. We are watching at a pivotal point.

Our Climate Tech Model remains fully triggered for the upside. The internal numbers are solid versus the July 29 to 8/3 pivot point, but one cannot be complacent in this environment.