Too Many Intellectuals…

Third time may get the job done. The 82.96 upside trigger level on the Bond ETF TLT was hit again today. All of the smart people saying manipulation of the yield curve is intellectually a bad thing are correct. And the price will be paid by the economy and the market at some point. I think however, this is a contrarian high point for markets, there are just too many smart people saying this will not work and are trading this belief.

I think that a key analytic point is to watch both sides of the curve, if both the 5 year and 30 year go the same way, the intellectuals are pushing on a straw. From a short-term perspective, a close under 4.342 % on the 5 year and 5.153 % on the 30 year are significant to me.