A Fight at the Decision Point …

I have been pointing out that the Bond Bears have been mounting a massive short position since July 8th when the TLT contract moved down through 84.88. That means the TLT median position point during this position buildup has seen a high of 84.88 and a low of 81.17 or a median value of 83.03.

Ironically during this buildup My technical decision point has been 82.96. Today we have seen TLT rally to 83.00 and then back off as the Bears mount a defense. I am watching this level closely for trade indications.

My macro view is unchanged. Bessent and Trump are in deep trouble due to the Iran War debacle. The war has resulted in a loss for the U.S., a loss magnitudes larger than Vietnam or Afghanistan psychologically and militarily as it is situated in the global economic middle east powder keg.

So, I am looking for a historic economic power play by Bessent and Trump as we approach the election. The sharply increasing inroads by the progressive side of the Democratic Party are adding to the pressure. They unfortunately are having to use the Social Democratic label for the moment as what was called the Democratic Progressive Caucus was to meek and ineffective to get the job done. Later after they are in control, the Social Democrats can take over the Progressive label and position themselves for 2028.

Getting back to the TLT trade, I expect the move above 83.00 will be mostly based on short covering until the 84.90 level is breached and we start to see Bond Bulls appear.