Post at 9:00 AM CDT The market reactions to Iranian War thing have been interesting to say the least especially with the fact that Oil as an energy input has rolled over the past five years in terms of relative…Continue Reading →
To see how Trump’s Bluff and Negotiate strategy works. At the moment, Iran doesn’t have much to lose, no reason to hurry after getting beat up so bad. The real risk to all of the World is that Trump does…Continue Reading →
In terms of the markets I have to admit that I didn’t anticipate that Trump would go this low. But he now obviously has lost control, the Iranians have shown that while they don’t have the muscle, they do have…Continue Reading →
Back in the day, I heard that the 30Y vs 5Y was Alan’s favorite measure as it was more directly affected by market conditions than other measures. Here is that chart as of today. Alan must be scratching his head,…Continue Reading →
The last few days we have seen the CNBC guru’s focus on the S&P 500 and the fact that it was trading under the 200-day average. That is true, but how much information does that register as to the Macro…Continue Reading →
Whether the United States “lost” the Vietnam War is a subject of historical debate that depends on how you define victory. While the U.S. military won nearly every major battle, it ultimately failed to achieve its primary political objective: maintaining…Continue Reading →
On reflection I realize that the posts that I have made over the past couple of months have centered around the Macro Inflection Point of January 29th, 2026. And, as I have dug down into the components of that moment,…Continue Reading →
There is a lot going on these days, a lot of fear, a lot of speculation, a country on hold. I speak to this a bit today at this post on the front page of our website: Outside the Box…Continue Reading →
The Market Sentiment Index that I watch closely has had a huge jump from the January 29th lows. That is the index that measures the combination of long Russell Index and Bonds and short Gold and Silver. It can move…Continue Reading →
The two things that we have been waiting for fell into place this morning, the Macro Sentiment Indicator and the Animal Spirits Indicator. The Climate Tech Model is adding leverage to its core climate signals along with adding Leveraged Stock…Continue Reading →