Market is Fearful

After a month’s posturing the market is taking on some fear, that is probably good. One thing is obvious, media is taking up the negative side of the equation.

That leads to more of the 4371 to 4517 S&P trading range, with 4444 as the swing point.

As to fundamentals, my view is:

  1. The economy is slowing down, as we have mentioned recently, GDPNOW for the first quarter is hovering around “0”.
  2. This leads to interest rates where I feel the ten-year rate probably topped this week.
  3. The FED Balance sheet is still growing and is the number one factor in stock prices. Talk of a roll down mostly are pointing to second half of the year.
  4. So, a weaker economy and stock prices in flux.
  5. Wall Street is using the DJI as its lead “Bear” dog.

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