The FED buys the Growth Story

Rates Rise on Fed Minutes

Yesterday we saw the five pillars of the Macro market on which we key, Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Commodities(Oil) and Currencies, and all reacted in perfect unison to the interest rate story, all were down except for the dollar which was up.

This is all in sync with the new reflection that interest rates are deemed to be the controlling factor.

What is Ironic…

Is that this is happening at the Top of the Growth Curve.  In essence what we are seeing is another FED that is dedicated to influencing the economic curve rather than trying to formulate conditions of providing a stable platform. It is kind of back window economics, where things are based on prior bad decisions.

In summary we see a flattening of the yield curve with eventually, long rates under short rates.

The Technicals Now Loom Big…

Bill Arndt, a good friend and analyst and trader from the Chicago Mercantile days sent me this last night..

” Thursday is the 3rd Day Away from the minor high of the failed rebound of the S&P.

We have seen the 3rd Week Away confirmation and now the Outside Day down.

It looks all but certain that this is it. I have a brief fundamental comment on the SDS sheet.

We were looking for a 17.8 day cycle top. Today is likely to be the chartist’s confirmation with a trade completely below 2725.11 in the cash S&P.”

Update at 11:30 AM CST

Is this a learning moment or a picture of confusion.  Today seems to be a reverse of yesterday, now investors see rates less ominous, stocks, oil, bonds, gold, are up, dollar is down.  Remember what we are looking for in the Macro sense, are these markets pulling away from each other, stocks, oil, and dollar lower, gold and bonds higher on the fear factor.

The trade above 2725.11 on the S&P confirms the confusion factor, lets see whether the market closes above it.


Posted at 8:49 AM CST



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

3 × 5 =