Summer Doldrums Starting

The fact that the market did not fall apart on Friday even though the VXX volatility index with a close of 31.82 confirmed that we have seen a significant top in the markets, to me indicates that a quiet summer is upon us.  Based on the S&P, I would anticipate a 1815 to 1945 trading range between now and the end of September.

All of the breakaway tops and bottoms over the past 20 years have happened in either March or October.  It didn’t happen in March this year so October will probably be the time of the most risk between now and the end of the year.

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