It takes a Lot…
For me to say I cannot believe what I am seeing. Fifty years of trading did not prepare me for the election response I am seeing the past two days. Undoubtedly I am looking at markets as an old man,…Continue Reading →
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Never Been More Bearish
Regardless of who wins the Presidency I don’t think I have been more bearish on the country or the stock markets. We live in the midst of a cruel and dysfunctional population. I realize the problem is maybe more the…Continue Reading →
It’s Not Really About Trump
This election is not really about just COVID, Black Lives Matter, Trump, or any other one topic, it is about the Conservative philosophy vs the Liberal philosophy. My pre-election summation this morning, is the big speculative money is on the…Continue Reading →
Is this the Biden Rally?
It would appear that Biden will be the winner on Tuesday. The overwhelming response of women, young people and minorities seem poised to set the culture war back to the stone age. Ironically, even though Tom Steyer was not successful…Continue Reading →
Confirmation is Obvious
Market response today confirms a breakout is in play. How low could things go, I have no idea, The 200 day average of our Macro Algo is 43 % down from todays lows at 11:00 CDT. That would be kind…Continue Reading →
Unwinding the Hype
This week we have seen the first part of the great unwind of three years of hype and P/E Multiples. What the market seems to ignore is that it needs to primarily deal with the dislocations associated with the move…Continue Reading →
The Signaling is Over
The market is headed down. 2500 points down in the Dow does not necessarily mean 7500 more points down (1/3 in the first leg), but it might. Here is our Macro Fed Influence chart, shot taken at 9:30 AM CDT….Continue Reading →
Macroeconomic uncertainty
It may be time to take a look at the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio, Campbell and Shiller (1998) to help gauge whether the stock market is overvalued. Two of the three inputs interest rates and potential growth rates, can…Continue Reading →
There is a Time to be Quiet
Baring a steal by the Supreme Court, where everything that we know comes unglued, the election is essentially over. So the market needs to do some digesting. My positions are in place, I will now just watch, this is a…Continue Reading →
It is Not about Volatility, Folks
Listening to the CNBC talking heads this morning, I hear the word Volatility being mentioned a lot. This is a reappearing pattern when they are scared but would not ever express the idea that the market is in trouble. Note…Continue Reading →