The Bond Market Envelope…
You have seen this chart many times in the past three or so years, starting around February 2021 when I first drew it. Here is an update of it: It is a chart based on weekly data showing 2019 before…Continue Reading →
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It’s Summer…
It appears that a slowing consumer scenario is the front and center item at the moment. All the AI hype while still the main investor focus, will probably have less impact on stock prices for a while. Gardening, road trips,…Continue Reading →
This is the Day…
This is the day that the market learns about valuations. Put inflation and interest rates on the back burner for now.
Narrowness and Risk Worsening …
The AI stocks continue to dominate the whole market, this is scary to say the least. I continue to see defense as the best option. A breakaway decline is gaining more probability.
Human Intelligence…
I posed this question to Microsoft’s Bing.. is human intelligence based on weighing probabilities? This question comes to mind with all the AI NVDA hype being expressed currently. I have been fortunate to have been involved in early machine learning…Continue Reading →
S&P 4566.6 …
The market has been building a valuation top for an inordinate amount of time since March 23. It appears that the reason it has taken so long is the market has been waiting on the AI capstone, NVDA. It now…Continue Reading →
Traders are Afraid of Missing Out..
The market continues it stretch of valuations, unhealthy stocks with unhealthy patterns are being bought because the leaders are getting too expensive. This provides an illusion of a broadening market. April 19 was the bottom of this trading bounce and…Continue Reading →
A Slowing Consumer…
It will be fascinating to see how the markets interpretation of the PPI, CPI, and Consumer sales numbers end up by Friday’s close. Big question, is a slowing consumer going to be a factor. We will see. Update at 10:40…Continue Reading →
AI Frenzy is Over for Now…
One more thing, the AI Buildout stocks are tired. The NVDA,MSFT,GOOG,IBM,AMZN,TM,CAT,TT,BLD mix is rolling over. They have led the bull market in stocks since April 10, 2023. They peaked on April 15, 2024, had a whiplash down day on April…Continue Reading →
The Rest of the Year…
As mentioned last week, we are going into a transition, one where the stocks that have had all the puffiness will see the air pulled out. Once that is completed, sometime over the next month, probably sooner rather than later…Continue Reading →