We have been talking about how with the steep discount of market rates to the Fed Fund rate, what will happen when the Fed Fund rate drops, whether 0.25 or 0.50. Today may provide a clue, market rates rose and…Continue Reading →
Gold may be flashing a warning sign, I think. The Long wave of Stock Market Speculation which started with 1980’s Trickle Down is coming to an end as the real economy replaces it. At backyard parties’ people are going to…Continue Reading →
The comments from September 6 stand. This is a time of base building for small cap and Climate Change type stocks. On the other hand, one has to keep in mind that the market has a huge overvaluation problem. This…Continue Reading →
Our Climate Change Model started pulling Wave 2 Hedges this morning when SPX hit 5444 and finished when SPX hit 5414. For review the WAVE 1 hedges were pulled on August 5, then Wave 2 hedges were placed between August…Continue Reading →
This foreword today is by Mariana Mazzucato, an economist that I highly respect: The climate crisis is intensifying, with temperatures set to rise at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels this century. Global warming is inflicting terrible destruction—much of it irreversible—on…Continue Reading →
Market interest rates made their move four months ago, market rates are down some 15 % since late April. Since then we have seen deflationary forces in AG commodities, down 8 to 10 %, while industrial metals copper, aluminum, and…Continue Reading →
The AI Buildout story is now essentially history. Looking forward we are going into a very contentious election which is really about good riddance of neoliberalism and the attendant trickle-down economy. The market will need to adjust to that new…Continue Reading →
The market has a dilemma, what does it do when it has correctly taken in all the good news and has already priced it into the market values and interest rates? Now the FED will need to catch up. We…Continue Reading →
When market based interest rates are under the fed fund rate, is there precedence whereby market rates rose soon after the fed fund rate was decreased? Microsoft Co-Pilot answer.. Yes, there have been instances where market-based interest rates rose soon…Continue Reading →
We asked Microsoft Co-Pilot another question on interest rates. Which interest rate affects the market more, the Fed Funds rate or the ten year market rate. After a lot of discussion here, the summary at the end is probably most…Continue Reading →