Fed Panic Points
In looking at our Risk On / Risk Off indicator since the March 2009 market low, we see four points where it would appear that the Fed panicked and made big moves. The last one was on April 18, 2013…Continue Reading →
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This Time is Truly Different
How do the stock market longs know when to get out? We know that if you are looking for total confirmation that a sell off is real, it will already be over, and the market will be 20 percent or…Continue Reading →
Afraid to Look Dumb
Market pundits like to talk about the market crawling up a wall of worry. The current market is a case study in crowd behavior and the fear that investors have that they will look dumb if they don’t ride on…Continue Reading →
Tech Macro Indicators still Negative
Both the hot and big tech stock sectors are still in a bear market. Cuurent bounces are just that, bounces toward resistance areas.
Leaving the Structure For Later
Everywhere we look these days the action is focused on short term responses. You can start with the FED and Bernanke, you can look at what is happening in Japan, you can look at Italy’s new premier, and it is…Continue Reading →
The Numbers Updated
Here is the first update of the “Numbers” since late February. Only four changes out of the 29 indicators followed had a change during that time. Therse changes were: 1) The Long Wave on Macro assets turned down on 4/22/13….Continue Reading →
More of What Doesn’t Work ??
General expectations in the markets are that the ECB will reduce interest rates again next week in an attempt to get economic activity back on track. Well, just minutes ago one sane person stepped to the plate: (from Yahoo news)…Continue Reading →
First Quarter M2 Money Supply Declines
In John Mauldin’s latest weekly letter he posts the First Quarter Investment Review and Outlook of Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington. One of the surprising numbers was the fact that M2 Fed money supply declined from $ 10.505 trillion to…Continue Reading →
Bounce Approaching Apex
Here is a piece that sums up my longer term thoughts rather well: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/17/efforts-to-revive-the-economy-lead-to-worries-of-a-bubble/?smid=pl-share
The Hook is now Set
The bounce off the 1536 low of yesterday on the S&P 500 sets up the technical indicator trigger that will be executed on a trade below 1536 in the coming period, hours-days.