Here is a preview of the setup we see for 2025. Projections and analysis will follow on January 9, 2025. The information for the annual projections model will be a continuation of what we have presented for the past 16…Continue Reading →
We plan to have our 2025 Macro Model Projections posted on December 27th. I can say that from an early review of the analysis that the overall pattern is as follows: At this moment we are in the Trump Reset…Continue Reading →
My guess is that the 5300 area of the S&P is the first real support level. That is down about 15 % from recent highs. Our 2025 Projections are getting closer to publication, maybe this weekend. Following through on today’s…Continue Reading →
We continue to work on our 2025 Macro Projections and one thing that is jumping out at us is the multiplier that we use to forecast the various components; S&P, Nasdaq 100, Bonds, Commodities, and Gold. And that is the…Continue Reading →
Back on November 12, we talked about the stocks that big guy holders believe will be treated very favorably by the new administration in terms of taxes and regulation. While our model had shown the tech and chip stocks were…Continue Reading →
Bitcoin at zero. Could it happen, probably not but it could get close at some point in the coming year. It is an idea with no economic value, totally based on no one selling. Its Achilles heel will be mass…Continue Reading →
Here is something to think about, I hear many conservatives say, since the election, that Trump may not be the Ideologue that the liberals feel he is. What he has is a sense of the direction that the people of…Continue Reading →
Today we saw the completion of valuation pricing of NVDA. The sell signal was confirmed with a lot volatility, but it stuck. Now we move on to pricing of the Tariff effect on the broader stock market. This started on…Continue Reading →
Speculative Demand Index, here is what we use in our model. You can see that it had a pop up on Nov 5 after the election and today declined below the support level. The recent high was on Sept 26,…Continue Reading →
The Markets Fatal Flaw in my view, it is not that Forward P/E ratios are high, it is the expected earnings part of the equation. Turbulent disruptive times do not make for happy strong earnings. As market participants adjust to…Continue Reading →