Who Got The Free Lunch ?
Is it coincidence that the oil market made a base the day of the first current stock market low on 1/22/08 and has rallied 49 percent? The Fed has provided a lot of liquidity during this time and no doubt…Continue Reading →
Fed Comments
Commodity Bubble is not Over, but
The commodity bubble will not end until interest rates, especially short term rates rise measureably, ie Fed Funds over 5 %, however we are seeing the start of an estimated 30 percent trading decline in the grain and oil market. This will…Continue Reading →
What happened during the Great Depression?
This is from Wikopedia: The great depression describes the period from roughly 1930 to 1941 when economic activity in America was categorized by unemployment, dropping prices, bank failures, and generally poor economic performance. The cause of the great depression has…Continue Reading →
The Economy, Riding on the Breakdown of the Social Contract
‘Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration.’ Lincoln’s First…Continue Reading →
Ben is Starting to Get It
The Fed got it almost right, a 50 point drop in rates would have been a little better, it would have given them a little more ammo in six months but for now this is ok. In our opinion the…Continue Reading →
The Bail Out Mentality is Alive and Well, Thank you
Why does the market hold above the January 22nd lows in spite of increaingly bad news. It’s simple, the bmarket believes that it will be bailed out when it gets bad enough. Bear Stearns on Friday was another piece of that…Continue Reading →
Fed – Starting to do the Right Thing
The stock market rally on Tuesday was a reaction to the fed starting to do the right thing. And that again is its changing focus to increasing liquidity rather than dropping  interest rates. Even the CNBC talking heads are moving…Continue Reading →
Followup to: How to Be a Contrarian
On February 2oth we outlined the parameters of how to back into a contrarian position and posed the question of what would happen if the FED started leaking in some way that they have done enough on rates, that lower…Continue Reading →
A Crucial Piece for the Bounce Starting Point
The FED’s relentless action to try and stop the current meltdown will eventually work for a while. The Bounce to 1435 on the S&P is still in focus. The market action at the lows yesterday was on low volume, no market…Continue Reading →
The Fed Reacting to Data
With inflation getting outside the box and commodity prices out of control we are seeing a Fed that is reaching its moment of truth. Will Bernanke really follow the data as he promised when he was appointed. It appears likely…Continue Reading →