State of Things…

The driving dynamic at the moment is an AI Frenzy.

The negative dynamics at the moment are the Trump economic policies.

Getting serious in this environment means that one has to acknowledge that there is no real thought by the Trump White House to reduce government debt. That means that the only government action that is reducing stimulus is the continued decline of the FED Balance Sheet (a little less funny money for market players) plus the tariff tax on consumption. The other aspects of Fiscal policy continue to grow debt, and money supply continues to increase, both aspects positive for speculative ventures, like stock trading.

On the other hand, the consumer economy is sloppy which increase pressure to reduce interest rates which brings about a big question, is the 70% consumer economy a relic, are we now in the short term a 50 % consumer / 50 % AI Buildout economy.

So, an apex situation is becoming more likely, but that seems to be in push back mode, meaning when it happens, watch out, probably at the earliest in first quarter 2026. All one can do now is to do what I have been talking about for the past six months, ride the speculative wave.

The market indicators that I follow continue to show major players remain in Timid mode, my Market Multiplier (animal spirits) is at 3.23, down from 3.35 recent high made on August 27th, and all time high of 3.92 made in December 2024.