Early in the Setup…

With the huge cross currents evolving we are posting tomorrows blog tonight.

I am no stranger in getting on a theme early, well before the 50, 100, 200 day trend lines confirm. In this phase I am concentrating on how the rankings, since the 9/19/22 FED SETUP launch date, are moving around during the violent early days of FED OVERKILL.

Of the 25 sectors we follow, 9 have positive 50-day trends, interesting and more than one would expect this early in the setup. These sectors are first, the two obvious sectors, DXY and CRB (which are ending their upmoves) and seven others, FANG, RETAIL, INFR (infrastructure), T&E, AG, Banks, and SOLAR.

Here is the table that going forward we will try and update weekly. It shows the movement of the sectors in their rankings and the change in rankings from the previous ranking (looking for the largest negative number as being number 1 is better than number 25).

Showing these tables when we are only 3 days into the after effects of the FED SETUP are somewhat meaningless but I am showing them to show how we will be analyzing the situation going forward.

The table on the left shows the performance ranking since 9/19/22. Interestingly only the dollar is positive and the 4 climate change based sectors got hit hard (am looking at adding to these sectors with the drop in prices), maybe Jamie Dimon’s dissing of climate change fix efforts played a part.

The table on the right shows the sectors lined up based on change in ranking. The commodity and bond sectors are natural good performers in this type of analysis, but some interesting early plays are evolving.

So don’t lose sight of the fact that the FED is in overkill mode and a PIVOT is now in the cards going down the road.