As mentioned last week, we are going into a transition, one where the stocks that have had all the puffiness will see the air pulled out. Once that is completed, sometime over the next month, probably sooner rather than later…Continue Reading →

Time of transition, consumer is slowing down a bit, interest rates heading down in late summer. Tech stocks will have to deal with slowing economy, Russell stocks will benefit from lower rates. Now that we have the Fed and employment…Continue Reading →

We are now into a new market environment. It is no longer about AI, Inflation, Interest rates, or the Fed, it is now about Tech over-valuation. What this means is that the next shoe to drop is a sharp decline…Continue Reading →

As the topping phase of the first stage of the 2022 to 2026 Bull Market continues clicking into place we are looking down the road to how this all will unfold and what strategy will work. Cycle work suggests that…Continue Reading →

I doubt that the market moves we are seeing this week are about GDP, interest rates, or inflation. It is totally about the market having a hard time coming to grips with over-valuation AI based metrics. Meta was the canary….Continue Reading →

The AI Buildout has been the whole game for the past 18 months and it was good. But, it reached a valuation barrier and now will probably see some back-off. Here is an update for our AI Buildout stocks Index…Continue Reading →

We are seeing a nice little bounce in the markets from Friday’s lows. Today’s highs should mark the other side of the swing point calculation which is: (Friday’s low + today’s high)/2. This should help to measure the next leg…Continue Reading →

Dangerous territory. Market players are working hard to influence the markets through the S&P. SPX 5140 was a measured move point which was hit on March 4. The general market topped on March 8 when SPX hit 5189. Today the…Continue Reading →

A follow-up to the post of April 4. Here is the AI Buildout Index chart as of the close. It tried to take out the high of the pivot day. April 4, and failed today. The gold vertical line corresponds…Continue Reading →

We could be seeing the setup for a 1987 style crash here, short but monumental. The fact that the index of the AI buildout stocks (NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, IBM, TM, TT, CAT, BLD) had a higher all time high…Continue Reading →

Maybe time to take a stroll. Since June 2022 when this Bull Market started we have seen a 5X rally in the Bitcoin/NVDA Index and 31 % rally in the Combined Market Index (SPX+NDQ+RUT). It has been a good run…Continue Reading →

All month we have seen two markets lead a euphoric period and yet the whole market has treaded water. So, to keep it Simple we are tracking the Two Factor Market. Two markets, Bitcoin, and Nvidia have led the euphoria…Continue Reading →

Certain dates in the calendar are rich in events. This is clearly the case for March 15, which is the day of Julius Caesar’s assassination, Christopher Columbus’ return to Europe after the “discovery” of America, the registration of the first…Continue Reading →

The important thing in trading this market is that our model exited long ETF’s and hedged the green portfolio when the SPX 5140 and NDQ 18370 targets were hit. This also meant the RUT laggard was exited in 2100 area….Continue Reading →

It is alert time. The rally today for the SPX and NDX indexes into a test of the high day sets up the potential for a failure trigger in the Climate Tech model. If triggered, we will see the model…Continue Reading →