Following up on things…

The market action outlined in the March 4 blog on Bottoming move has fallen into place. Today we are seeing confirmations that long-term factors in the Climate Tech Model are digging in, the climate tech stocks are gaining favor again. Short term traders remain behind the eight ball, our “Animal Spirits” index remains subdued although the recent swoon appeared to bottom yesterday.

The Macro Market Index we mentioned last Friday has yet to kick in a buy signal. This is the Long Russell, Long Bonds, Short Gold and Short Silver Index. For me this is more a contrarian brain exercise than a trade. The weekly bar chart here shows the high in this macro as being made the week of March 23, 2020, almost six years ago. It provides some sense of how things have changed since Peak Covid.

I like to use RSI as an indicator of when things are starting to get stretched. Using weekly data here makes it apparent that late December 2025 was the time when things appeared to come unhinged with this contrarian view.