Macro Moron in Play…

Here is my current view, and solution to the Macro picture…

Letter to the President:

Mr. President, I didn’t vote for you but I do know that your biggest desire is to be known as the best President ever. So, this is your time to build on one of your strongest traits, your unpredictability.

If that is still true, today, you have an opportunity to start your “Greatest President Ever” campaign.

This could be built around the following points:

1. Announce that the two primary people behind the Iran War are out. Fire Hegseth and cut off contact with Netanyahu immediately.

2. Announce a more humane deportation plan, fire Stephen Miller and redo with strict regulations to deport only people with felony convictions.

3. Announce that you will work with Congress for a new Immigration Bill that will include Dreamers.

I doubt if Trump could do any of the above, so I guess he will just go down in history as the Macro Moron.

I have not made many posts during the last three weeks. What you can take away on that score is that since I try to maintain a Macro View, if I don’t post anything I don’t have a change in view. Rest assured I don’t take my eyes off the unfolding scene.

The last major post that I made on March 19th, reviewed the Macro Sentiment Index and its importance. This you will recall is the indicator that combines Long Russell and Long Bond positions with Short gold and Short silver positions, weighted equally in dollar terms. Today I will pull apart that indicator and show the charts of the two pieces. A couple of things jump out at me, one is that the pattern of the long Russell and Long bond chart shows that we made a bottom on March 23rd right on schedule, off the January highs, and more importantly even as Trump goes off the rails big time, the Short Gold and Short Silver chart January 29th equity bottom remains in place.

Here is the Long Russell, Long Bond equity chart:

And here is the Short Gold and Short Silver Chart equity chart:

There will be a time for Long Gold and Silver again, but that is probably at least six months away.