The Green Line

The jerk up in interest rates overnight goes against any reading of where things stand on rates. Interest rates are going down. The Green line on the attached chart keys off three significant 2025 daily highs on the 30Y bond, May 22, July 16, and Sept 3. Between January 2 and February 16 2026, rates tried and failed to establish a trend up above that line, and they tried again last night, runing up to 4.828 % but now have triggered down to 4.744 % under the Green line. I am impressed.

The other line of significance is the Blue horizontal line drawn through the January 2, 2026 low of 4.828 %.

Last night’s comments in our blog goes into some factors that outline things that could continue to push rates lower.