Macro’s are All Important Here…

Noon time Update:

If you like to operate in the Macro Realm, this is a very special time.

It appears that Trump and Netanyahu’s Grand Plan has been defeated. Again, one has to keep in mind that Trump at his core only has one goal, move money to the top in the U.S., and after next coming up with some convoluted Victory statement, he and Bessent will try to go back to work on that goal.

This has led to a high level of Panic in the CNBC crowd, not so much that they are selling here, but they definitely are subdued. And some big-name economists are talking about this as being 2008. The Trump defeat calls into question everything we have heard about the MAGA Agenda. While this will not end the foolishness, the Iranians definitely dampened it.

I think you have to step back from the media output here and look at what the charts are saying. For some time, at least since the October 2025 when the market resistance level was reached, that the next leg of the stock markets will not be able to take off until Gold and Silver reach a level where they will not tie up more money. There are indications that we are at that point. A couple of days ago I outlined one of the Macro Market Sentiment Indexes that I like to watch. It is kind of a “Super Contrarian’ take on things. That again is the Long Russell, Long Bonds, Short Gold, Short Silver based Index. The chart I am sharing here today is what gets into the down and dirty operative level of that index, it is the one based on futures so the model can be monitored over-night. The inputs are set to following levels, Russell (RTY) set to 37.5 %, Bonds (ZB) set to 37.5 %, Gold (GC) set to 12.5 % and Silver (SI) set to 12.5%. The precious metals levels are higher than a rational person would want to hold in real life portfolio, but they are set here to highlight their psychological effect. Using the most sensitive method of reading short term waves in the chart, the current short-term wave of overall Economic Sentiment turned negative on September 25th, 2025. We will let you know when it turns positive. Of course, waiting for sentiment to turn will not make you any money as prices will be substantially higher when it turns. But you will sleep better for now.

The daily bar chart version of that index shows the Macro low was made on January 29th and we have seen a bounce. Over the past three weeks we are seeing some consolidation well above the low. Keep in mind the main use of this chart is as a Macro Sentiment measure.

One other thing today, the Bond Green Line has been pressured by oil price effects this week, 30Y going up to 4.914% today. I remain of the contention that the 30 year is headed down to 4.3 % level as this all plays out based on weak demand.