Repeating…

We have yet to start the Bubble phase. My Animal Spirits Index continues to show timidity. People’s bullishness is based on believing in the Manipulator at the Pulpit, yet what they see in the real world is sluggish employment and general economic despair. I guess what I am saying is that to me Bubbles are not numerical valuation measures, but more so levels of insanity on the part of traders and investors.

While I have not finished the review that I do before I put together My annual Outlook for 2026, I will say that just initially looking at some macro numbers, two things jump out at me, one is that the FED has consistently kept M-2 Money Supply growing all year, up around 4 percent for the year, and in spite of all the Trump promises of reducing Government debt, it keeps rising, up around 4 % for the year and probably set to accelerate. So, there you have the two main drivers underlying a coming bubble. GDP struggles and probably would be negative except for the money rushing into the AI Buildout, and the FED Balance sheet is set to change direction from the 4 percent decline seen this year.