The Logic of it All, extended…

Maybe a little history now, in a sense the Macro Economic picture is locked in a stage of remorse, a remorse that is being used by those in Power to do some really dumb things. The Funny Money stage set off by Bernanke between April 2010 and January 2020 was an epic black hole in long term economic terms. Tragically it was embraced by President Obama, Trump, and Biden who did not have the balls to tell Bernanke to go back to writing stories for the Ivy leaguers. In no way should the Funny Money stage have lasted more than 2 or 3 years as the economy clawed out of the 2008 crash. Since January 2020 economists have generally been clueless as interest rates normalized. The main legacy so far is a strong GDP financed by government debt. So into this period of remorse we see a group of economic crazies pushing Tariffs, termination of free markets and resulting hot deficits. The net effect is that in this MAGA period, markets have become detached from economics. This will probably continue until the Trump effect is neutralized, through some kind of event, through some kind of market crash event.

Gold has shown itself to be a good arbiter of this unfolding, although it did get ahead of itself recently.

Part 5 and 6 will come out next week. They will talk about how to navigate the detached economics of this Bubble once it triggers. We are not there yet; this is just staging.