Animal Spirits…

At the moment I am in the process of doing a mid-year update, hope to post on July 7th. It seems like the thing that jumps out to me at this juncture while doing this analysis is the “Animal Spirits” work that I have done in the past and talk about a lot here, i.e. the Market Multiplier index. Here is the daily trading version of that index, using two-hour bars. What you see in the chart is the June 24th upside breakout of the December Biden high of 2.94. Since then the chart had a short-term stall at 3.10 and a little backoff yesterday to 3.03 and now a modest bump up to 3.07.

In the larger market picture we have the July 9th Tariff red line and more lies about what it means. One must keep in mind that Trump wants the market to go higher, probably loves seeing the buying and selling as his manipulation plays into things. Here is a line that probably describes it best, pulled from my upcoming Mid-Year Update. ” In my opinion, probably the most important take on the next nine months is that economics will not matter much until the apex point is reached whereupon all that matters will be economics.”

I still see fourth quarter 2025 to first quarter 2026 when the infamous term comes into place “when the shit hits the fan”.