It’s Summertime…

It’s summertime. Things are progressing, bonds are observing their recent bottom formation, TLT will take some time, but March highs are a target.

As to the stock market, following up on my May 29 post, the Monetary Driver index is stuck in a tight range, 60.25 recent low yesterday due to rising oil prices, 62.5 recent high on May 30 reflecting widening yield curve, today at 60.75.

The Stock Multiplier Index (i.e. Animal Spirits) is also rather subdued as it is difficult to get excited with Trump’s constant rampages. The Biden December high on that index was 2.94, recent high was 2.93 on May 30 and recent low was 2.86 yesterday. Today a slight bounce to 2.88. \

I still anticipate a rally into the fourth quarter, primarily due to a timid economy, leading to lower short-term rates which will help the monetary Driver Index and rising animal spirits as euphoria takes over when the Biden lid comes off the Stock Multiplier Index at 2.95. And don’t forget, a continued declining dollar is the key market support factor.

Of course. there is always the risk of Trump doing something really stupid which forces a classic Fibonacci 38 % decline of the rally from the April lows.