Back to the Markets…

Fed meeting is history.

So back to the economy and markets.

Here is what I heard Jay say:

1. Forecasts are always conditional.

2. Currently economy has additional uncertainty.

3. Economy feels like it is in a good place.

4. Goal of policy is to balance risk to objectives.

5, FED models outcomes, but does not act on simulations.

6. 12-month inflation rate is most important.

7. Current 4.37 FF rate is above neutral.

8. A 2 % inflation rate is a Global Standard.

Here is our chart of expected average market rates (20Y+10Y+5Y+2Y) for the next couple of months, see blue lines, 4.25 to 4.48 %. Recent high was 4.71.