Coming up Next, The Multiplier…

We continue to work on our 2025 Macro Projections and one thing that is jumping out at us is the multiplier that we use to forecast the various components; S&P, Nasdaq 100, Bonds, Commodities, and Gold. And that is the multiplier that pulls all the inputs together, GDP, Fiscal, Fed Balance Sheet, and Money Supply.

That multiplier on stocks is at an all-time high and has been solidly trending higher since April 2021 as the combined effects of the Biden Climate Change investments and the accumulative pandemic money surge were in control.

As the disrupters get ready to take over the economy, we struggle to figure out how much to pull back the multiplier, if we take it back to the disruptive pandemic levels, stocks are going to be in a heap of trouble.

More on this along with our 2025 Forecasts soon, but for now we will just take in the Powell Shock Wave and let the Trump Adjustment play out. Trump manipulation will be a key ingredient in 2025, and he may even try to ignite some pre-inauguration noise tomorrow.