S&P 4566.6 …

The market has been building a valuation top for an inordinate amount of time since March 23. It appears that the reason it has taken so long is the market has been waiting on the AI capstone, NVDA. It now has it and the markets downside reset will be swift to make up for the time extension.

Update at 12:28 PM on 5/24/24

As such a High Risk Period is Looming. Our model sees long term factors improving based on June 2022 beginning factors. However, since Jan 2023 the increasing narrowness of the second stage of the larger move has sharply increased risk. The two drawdowns seen earlier in Oct 2022 and Oct 2023, 19 % and 11 %, serve as baselines.

What is different here, is the time length of a reset, this will not be a 3-month decline. The model suggests S&P 4566.6 as a downside risk level coming up. When this occurs, it will be time to go back to core sectors that will continue the Bull Market. More on that later.