In short we are watching the blow-up of a four year election campaign, one based on the premise that the stock market, not the economy or people is important. Everything that has been done, tax cuts for the wealthy, FED…Continue Reading →
The COVID resurgence has put the Old Normal thrust on hold. Let’s let this unfold.
An important point in my life. The day in July 15, 1970 that I started trading as a Member on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It was a big move for an Ag Economics graduate. From managing a…Continue Reading →
Lots of Bubble talk these days. Since 2009 I prefer to call them balloons because they keep needing to have new holes repaired and then the FED tries to reflate them. Results are not good, once punctured they are never…Continue Reading →
That picture changed changed on June 5th and has held. The Macro cycle of long 30 yr bonds and long gold, short S&P and commodities, remains 2.8% positive on an unleveraged basis. Here is the chart of the macro relationship…Continue Reading →
The refusal of markets to move forward into a “New Normal”, making needed adjustments to where we are in the macro Cycle and the new fundamentals, is weighing on the economy. Interest rates reflect that totality and the Macro Cycle…Continue Reading →
To COVID 19 that is.. Time will tell, in the meantime the Macro trade continues to work.
Based on overnight trading the trade is sitting with a 2.3 % profit, down from 5.0 % at last weeks high for the trade. Will update post as this important day unfolds. What we are seeing basically is a collision…Continue Reading →
That is the date when the long financials (bonds and gold) vs the short assets (S&P and Commodities) triggered. Here is the index chart updated at 11:00 AM CDT, S&P was at 3147 at that point. It is up around…Continue Reading →
This morning in our most aggressive accounts, we have sold our gold position and moved the money into triple leveraged SQQQ short NDX 100 stock ETF. The reasoning is that GOLD so far in the move appears to be more…Continue Reading →