The Signal, Will it be a Smoke Signal on a Cloudy Day?

Everyone seems to believe that they can tag along with the FED, that it will be transparent and tell everyone when the end of funny money has arrived.  This story also seems to assume that half of the market will not see the signal and will pay up to complete the transfer of assets.  How stupid has the market become since the last BULL CYCLE topped in 2000?

Our premise has been that that we are not in a Bubble Market, that we will not see P/E’s rise to bubble levels like seen in 2000, the top of the last BULL CYCLE.  Simply put, we are still in the BEAR CYCLE that started in 2000. This bear cycle has been characterized by wide ranging stock market prices, a lot of new highs and yet the big drivers of a new economic cycle have yet to be put in place.  In essence,  Fed actions which have tried intermittently to circumvent the reset that needs to happen to allow for a bull market base have kept the new Bull Cycle from occurring.

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