The force of underlying deflation is waiting, waiting for something big to happen. Abenomics in Japan is just a little temporary respite. The Fed cannot stop QE infinity until inflation becomes rampant as their employment triggers are not possible. Sadly, bubbles…Continue Reading →
Ben Bernanke whose overall characterization is probably best said as “Helicopter Ben” has actually in his terms as Fed Chairman played two roles so far: 1) Ben the Savior is number one. He did save the economy with QE 1…Continue Reading →
While we have had success in our comments on the dollar and interest rates over the past year, our biggest contributor to portfolio asset growth has been our deflation posture and the short gold and commodity positions. My biggest mistake…Continue Reading →
The fact that during the stock blow-off this week, the T-Bond markets held well above their March 2013 lows of 140-14 and the 141 level where we covered our short Bond positions held since last summer, seems to portend to…Continue Reading →
Current Macro View May 14, 2013 The first QE made sense, it allowed capital time to adjust to a new reality. QE-2, QE-3, and QE-Infinity, basically attempts to take the economy back to where it was in 2007, made…Continue Reading →
Patience is probably the most important ingredient at the moment. In the “Numbers” , over the past six months the technicals first turned down on the tech stocks, next on gold and commodities, and up on the dollar at the…Continue Reading →
In looking at our Risk On / Risk Off indicator since the March 2009 market low, we see four points where it would appear that the Fed panicked and made big moves. The last one was on April 18, 2013…Continue Reading →
How do the stock market longs know when to get out? We know that if you are looking for total confirmation that a sell off is real, it will already be over, and the market will be 20 percent or…Continue Reading →
Market pundits like to talk about the market crawling up a wall of worry. The current market is a case study in crowd behavior and the fear that investors have that they will look dumb if they don’t ride on…Continue Reading →
Both the hot and big tech stock sectors are still in a bear market. Cuurent bounces are just that, bounces toward resistance areas.