With Friday’s SPX close over 4444, the market is poised to move higher albeit within an atmosphere with a lot of crosscurrents. Maybe four things stand out, 1) Ukraine, 2) Inflation numbers, 3) Economic Activity, 4) FED messaging. First Ukraine…..Continue Reading →
Here we are a couple of days after the FED Meeting, time to think things over. Here are some items that come to mind at the moment. A flattening yield curve is primarily a clue that the FED is not…Continue Reading →
All eyes have been on Jerome Powell and what the FED will do versus inflation. The easy answer would be who knows. Thinking about it for a few minutes gave me pause and allowed me to come up with Jerome’s…Continue Reading →
My take, Powell is no Volker. Accommodation is his middle name, big talk, little action.
And maybe something even more important, China. Today I will be watching for indications that Powell has learned something over the past two years, not what he is going to do, but how his thought processes have changed. The Ukranian…Continue Reading →
We have added some further analysis following today’s close. We periodically post our Market Puzzle chart, which shows the percentage change in various indexes versus the January 26, 2018 juncture point. That was the point where Trump’s Tax and Tariff…Continue Reading →
Weekend update # 3 The NASDQ 100 is pricing in a 1.8 Trillion dollar decline in the FED Balance Sheet. If you believe that, there is a bridge for sale. Here is a chart that we have shown here before,…Continue Reading →
Weekend Update # 2 Sitting on a pile of cash while the world crashes around you… That is what i see in today’s markets. To have this perspective you have to put the Fed Balance Sheet front and center. It…Continue Reading →
Weekend Update # 1 I have to say that I am a little uncomfortable with things at the end of this week. The atrocity that has rained down on Ukraine is the most senseless thing I have seen in all…Continue Reading →
Today, and maybe the condition continues until a couple of days after next week’s FED meeting, the market has entered into a state of lethargy. Stocks got crazy earlier in the week, but have bounced a bit and now are…Continue Reading →