So, what did we learn this week?
I think; 1. Rates are not going down, but they also are not going up much, probably a range of 3.65 to 3.95 on the broad 2Y to 30 Y range average. 2. Economy is in a growth mode, a…Continue Reading →
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Signs of the New Economy…
A new more productive economy is evolving. The economies Productivity numbers issued today were a + 3.0%. This is what to expect going forward, workers are starting to make up for 40 years of being behind the eight ball on…Continue Reading →
The Fed Overstepped…
And lost its credibility. A few factors stand out. In a sense this was bound to happen after the 12 years of artificial markets, starting with Bernanke’s QE2 in 2011. Neither the markets nor the Fed knew what was really…Continue Reading →
It is not that Hard…
It is not that hard. All the Fed needs is a Tradingview chart. Chart here of CRB index and Fed Funds rate. CRB rates broke out to the upside on Feb 1, 2021, 2 years ago today, and topped out…Continue Reading →
Fed Day Tomorrow,
I don’t see much new info to add before the meeting. But my take here at Tuesday mid-day is that a majority of players remain bearish. This to me means that Climate Change induced investment plus short covering and under…Continue Reading →
What will Powell do?
First, Powell cannot give any indication that he will back off, even though the corner on inflation has been made. To follow through on his posture and rhetoric he is forced to do a small 0.25 rate raise. What does…Continue Reading →
It’s All about the Fundamentals..
This past couple of weeks have seen a lot of market commentators talking about how the market action is all about the technicals and whether various moving averages and trend lines of the bear market are being violated. That is…Continue Reading →
The Bernanke Curse
As the markets twiddle around waiting the 7 trading days until the FED provides their next story, one has to look back at how we got here. It all started with the belief that smart PHD’s could run the economy…Continue Reading →
The FED, Leader or Forcer
Over the weekend The Motley Fool said: “This Recession Indicator Hasn’t Been Wrong in 56 Years: Here’s What It Says Happens Next”. What they are talking about is the Yield Curve and here are their further comments: “While there are…Continue Reading →
On the Edge
Here we show a 15 minute chart at 10:15 AM CST that allows one to drill down to the moment. What we see is the FED Fund rate is declining vs the average market rate, and yet the market rate…Continue Reading →