At the moment, Nothing Matters other than 10 Year Yields

You might want to look back at our post of 6/20/19.  We like being out of the long bond position that we held for a long time, many months, years.

The long term 10 year yield chart is looking more and more like a major bottom. Chart shown in 6/20/19 post is essentially what you see today.

Manipulation is the Key

Stock prices and Short Term Yields are Manipulated and have little value unless you are a friend of Mnuchin or Trump and have inside knowledge of the tweet schedule.

What this means is: yield curve analysis is virtually meaningless at this point, the short end number is not a real value.

One other point

Over the next 18 months we do expect a very quick spike down in yields when the stock market panic takes hold and the S&P trades down in the 1050 price range and Gold trades up in the $ 3000 area.  We would expect this yield down spike to come from higher yield levels than at present (probably 2.4 to 2.5 % on 10 Year) and be short lived as the Masters of the Universe try to turn things around.

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