My Note Pad today,

I generally type things into my notepad as the day goes by and then try to make it into a coherent message.

Over the past couple of days the various news threads seem to be all over the place. So I am just putting out the points and my take on them.

  1. Lots of Fear out there, that is what you want to see if you are a long term trader. Most short term bulls are waiting for Powell, long term growth bulls are keying on the GDP numbers and building their positions. The 210 day SPX bottom average is 3938 today, the trading envelope is 3808 to 4078, with the median at 3943.
  • Zuckerberg Manifesto
  • Some good points out today concerning the Zuckerberg Manifesto. My interpretation is a little different, efficiency is the base, but I see TECH as being differentiated. Core and Climate TECH are moving to the forefront, while Consumer TECH is moving into the background, not gone, but less important.
  • In a week I will let you know if the no-recession call is correct or not. At the moment the 3938 SPX 210 day bottoming average is in play. Most important thing is GDPnow on March 24 and also to some extent the FED meeting. Retail hard goods and Consumer Tech are soft, that is what everyone is talking about today.
  • I actually heard someone with a brain on CNBC yesterday, i.e. or the first time I heard someone mention Climate Tech. He was a tech person, a VC type.  His comments could be summarized as over the years since 1994 the early development / buildout stage of the tech waves have seemed to be followed by a financial crisis, 2000 was the crisis that followed the internet development/buildout phase, 2008 was the crisis that followed the mobile/remote technology development buildout, and the current crisis is following the Climate Tech development and buildout period.  The 2000 and 2008 crisis were followed by a commercial phase of the buildouts, and he sees that happening next with Climate Tech.  He said the crisis phase seems to open the eyes of the general population and then they kind of get involved in the commercialization stage and then really pile on the final consumerism stage.

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