Are there limits to anticipation?
Economy is kind of at a standstill. Money that is being lost in the economy is being barely offset by the FED, and the current so called stimulus bill held up by and now ok’d by Trump is not going to change things as it is targeted to fill up empty holes, little is going to float around above ground.
Looking back at 2020 it is evident that the majority of things that happened with the markets was based on hope, an anticipation that things will return to normal someday.
August 7 Money Top
For me, up until August 7th, things were going relatively well, at that point it appeared evident to me that new FED cash was being washed out by all the people not working and not being redeployed by a national plan based on the reality that COVID was temporary.
So I sold out two positions that had worked up to that point, long T-Bonds and Gold and moved the money to short stock 3X leveraged ETF’s. At this point stocks are up around 11 % from August 7th and I am sitting on a 33 % loss on that initial position. I should add that my average loss looks much better as I have continued to add 10 percent to the August short position monthly by keying on periods when the daily RSI is over 66.0, which by the way is true today also.
It is true that bonds and gold which I liquidated in August are down around 9 percent from that date. I am being patient on the short stock index position as the aggregate money number for the economy has not changed since the August APEX. See updated chart here, 12-28-20 1:30 PM CST. It is remarkable that the numbers are hugging the Apex value for almost 6 months.
Our 2021 Outlook will roll out later this week.?