Keeping it Real Simple
The Stock Market Top
One could make the case that the start of the Stock Market Top was the January 2018 fracture time. The average for that month was 2713 on the S&P.
Swing Extremes Since
The S&P extreme prices since are a low of 2315 and high of 3131, midpoint of 2723, close enough to January 2018 midpoint.
QE2 was the start of the scenario of the FED overreaching. The high in October 2010 before the overreach was 1198 on the S&P. For me that level is the extreme downside target that looms in a downdraft. A 62 percent decline.